Weekly Economic Newsletter August 24, 2015

September 25, 2015 Weekly Economic Updates


“Only the mediocre are always at their best.”

     – Jean Giraudoux


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I am a port city in Canada, a state in southeast Australia, a big lake in Africa, and a renowned queen. What is my name?

Last week’s riddle:

It grows down, yet it also grows up. What is it?

Last week’s answer:

A goose.



Fierce headwinds hit Wall Street last week. A report showed that Chinese factory activity hit a 6-year low in July, raising serious doubts about whether that country’s economy was still maintaining 7% annual growth. (The Shanghai Composite lost 4.3% Friday and 11% for the week.) Friday, WTI crude dipped under $40 before settling at $40.45 on the NYMEX; oil is on an 8-week losing streak.) Under such pressure, U.S. stocks had their poorest week of the year: in five days, the Dow fell 5.82% to 16,459.75, the Nasdaq 6.78% to 4,706.04 and the S&P 500 5.77% to 1,970.89. The CBOE VIX soared 40% last week to a Friday close of 26.81.1,2



New National Association of Realtors data showed 2.0% more resales in July and a yearly gain of 10.3%, with the annualized sales pace at its hottest since February 2007. July also saw single-family housing starts rise 12.8%. Total starts were up just 0.2%, however, and the Census Bureau measured a 16.3% dip for building permits.3


In July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index rose only 0.1%. That was half the gain projected by analysts in a Briefing.com consensus forecast. In June, consumer prices were up 0.3% with core CPI rising 0.2%.4



Minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting released last week showed no apparent consensus about raising short-term interest rates, with some Federal Reserve officials leaning against an increase because of muted U.S. inflation and slowing overseas economies and others wishing to proceed. Wall Street was left a bit less certain about the long-assumed September rate move.5


THIS WEEK: Stateside, nothing major is scheduled for Monday. Tuesday, the Conference Board’s August consumer confidence index comes out, along with the June S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, July new home sales data and earnings from Best Buy, DSW, Toll Bros., and Valspar. A report on July durable goods orders arrives Wednesday, plus earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, Chico’s, Express, Tilly’s, and Williams-Sonoma. The second federal government estimate of Q2 GDP appears Thursday, plus NAR’s July pending home sales index, a new initial claims report and earnings from Aeropostale, Autodesk, Burlington Stores, Dollar General, Fred’s, GameStop, J.M. Smucker, Smith & Wesson, and Tiffany. Friday brings the final August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, July personal spending figures and earnings results from Regis Corp. and Big Lots.


DJIA -7.65 -3.40 +12.23 +5.57
NASDAQ -0.63 +3.84 +23.18 +11.98
S&P 500 -4.27 -1.08 +16.78 +6.13
10 YR TIPS 0.52% 0.24% 1.05% 1.86%


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 8/21/156,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

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Investment Advisor Representative, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Registered Representative, Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Cambridge and Independence Capital Financial Partners are not affiliated.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

1 – thestreet.com/story/13263507/1/stocks-end-brutal-week-as-market-nears-correction.html [8/21/15]
2 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [8/21/15]
3 – usnews.com/news/slideshows/5-things-to-know-about-the-economy-this-week-8-21-2015 [8/21/15]
4 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/08/17-21 [8/21/15]
5 – money.cnn.com/2015/08/21/investing/stocks-market-lookahead-august-21/index.html [8/21/15]
6 – markets.wsj.com/us [8/21/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F21%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F21%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F21%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F20%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F20%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F20%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F22%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F22%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F22%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/21/15]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/21/15]

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